建立了宿主具有常数出生率以及蚊子具有Logistic增长的西尼罗河病毒(WNV)的传染病模型.利用van den Driessche和Watmough的方法,得到了模型的基本再生数,进而讨论了平衡点的存在性和稳定性,并且证明了当因病死亡率大于恢复率时,若基本再生数大于1,则系统存在唯一的正平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的,若基本再生数小于1,则系统存在两个正平衡点,其中一个为鞍点.当因病死亡率小于恢复率时,若基本再生数大于1,则系统存在唯一的正平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的,若基本再生数小于1,则系统不存在正平衡点.
The dissemination of cattle brucellosis in Zhejiang province of China can be attributed to the transport of cattle between cities within the province. In this paper,an n-patch dynamical model is proposed to study the effect of cattle dispersal on brucellosis spread. Theoretically,we analyze the dynamical behavior of the muti-patch model. For the 2-patch submodel,sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number R0 and the number of the infectious cattle in term of model parameters are carried out. By numerical analysis,it is obtained that the dispersal of susceptible cattle between patches and the centralization of infected cattle to the large scale patch can alleviate the epidemic and are in favor of the control of disease in the whole region.
Juan ZhangShigui RuanGuiquan SunXiangdong SunZhen Jin
